Thursday, April 10, 2008

Course Conditions = What Kind of Scores?

The Golf Digest Editor's Blog has a post from Bob Carney to try to address the subject. As I mentioned in my Gimme a Winning Number post, I thought -5 to -8 would win. Here are direct quotes of players trying to lowball my guess:

Adam Scott: It's so hard to pick a winning score, but it's playing so long at the moment; it will be hard to get a lot of shots close...I don't know, a couple under maybe, if the weather's good.

But Sean Micheel, who said that last year's high scores were "definitely" weather-related, nonetheless thought high scores could happen again if we get no more rain: "Over par could happen."

Phil Mickelson agreed: They won't be lower. I think the scores may get a little bit higher, yeah, and the length is the biggest factor. Also all of the trees and the tightening of the golf course.

Here is the interesting part of the blog post - many players actually think my number may be more accurate, at least for the longer hitters.
Privately players have been a bit bolder. One said that the course's softness, especially if we get showers on Friday and/or Saturday, could produce a score closer to 8- or 9-under par. The softness hurts some players, obviously, but gives long hitters a chance to hit approaches more aggressively.

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